No fracking in home counties, village residents tell oil company
Cuadrilla's plan to drill test well in West Sussex leads to furious reactions at public meetingAfter earthquakes in Lancashire and tales of poisoned water and flaming taps in the US, "fracking" for gas or oil in the English home counties was never likely to be easy. And so it proved when oil executives faced the fury of a village hall full of West Sussex residents in a clash over controversial technology that energy companies believe could open up major reserves of energy from underground rocks."What you are about to do will make our water beyond toxic!" Ella Reeves shouted at Mark Miller, the Pennsylvania oil man who had come to Balcombe to explain plans to search for hydrocarbons 800 metres under the Sussex weald. "It's about money for you, but for me it is about life."Reeves was one of around 200 residents squeezed into the village's arts and crafts village hall to hear Miller, the chief executive of Cuadrilla, a multinational oil and gas company, explain why he might want to use hydraulic fracturing or "fracking" less than a mile from the village, which lies on the London to Brighton commuter line, just five miles from Gatwick airport.The technique involves forcing thousands of gallons of chemical solution under high pressure into rocks to release oil or gas, but opponents say it pollutes groundwater, adds to greenhouse gas pollution and destroys local ecosystems.The meeting on Wednesday night was the latest skirmish in the battle between environmentalists and the oil and gas industry over access to the UK's shale gas and oil reserves, which in Lancashire alone could deliver £6bn a year for 30 years, according to one industry estimate.Supporters say it will improve the UK's energy security and the battle has intensified in recent months with anti-fracking activists scaling a rig in Hesketh Bank, Lancashire, halting work in November.Balcombe laid on a more polite welcome, but after two earth tremors near Blackpool last year were attributed to Cuadrilla's fracking operations, the atmosphere was tense. A warm-up video screened by the meeting organisers about the toxic impact of the technique in America, raised the temperature to furious.Miller and his two PR minders, all dressed in black, gritted their teeth as the film spoke of "red nasty water oozing out of the hill", "radium in waste products", "methane in drinking water" and how "our heaven has turned into our hell".Fracking "threatens to destroy the environment and wreck lives", the voiceover said, adding frightening claims that the chemicals used in the US had been linked to bone, liver and breast cancers and disorders of the nervous system."I am going to be following a bit of a tough act with that video," said Miller as he took the microphone nervously. "I'm not sure I can."He managed to explain that his company has acquired an exploration and development licence from the Department of Energy and Climate Change and that it only planned to drill a test well at this stage.He said the pollution suffered in parts of America, where the fracking industry is huge and growing, represented "the poorest part of our industry". "Drilling and fracturing for natural gas is safe," he said to disbelieving tuts. "It about doing it right. Environmental incidents are rare."By this point some in the audience wanted to hear no more. There were shouts of "you've gone on long enough" and "you're talking rubbish".Anti-fracking campaigner Will Cottrell, chairman of the Brighton Energy Co-operative, claimed a 10-well fracking facility was "like setting off a 4.4 kilotonne nuclear bomb". Quadrilla said this was untrue, but the hall was in foment."You are in Sussex now and we will not be drove [pushed around]," shouted Alan Gold, 67."If you put fracking fluid down there at 10,000 pounds per square inch it is going to disturb our drinking water," yelled another man. "Go away!""Frack 'em and forget 'em, isn't it?" said a voice from the back. "It's all about the money.""This is how they burn witches I guess," Paul Kelly, a director of PPS, Cuadrilla's public relations and lobbying firm told the Guardian. "I can think of dozens of oil companies who wouldn't put themselves through this in a million years and maybe they have it right.""It has been pretty disastrous," added Nick Grealy, a former gas executive who promotes the shale gas industry for clients including Cuadrilla. "They were set up."For many residents this was the first they had heard of the plans and they voiced worries about the millions of gallons of water needed for the operation in a drought affected area, noise and water pollution. Two young women spoke about their fears fracking would hinder their recovery from cancer.Miller said the fracking technology used in the UK was designed to prevent pollution of water courses. He repeatedly said the well was only at exploration stage and that a further licence would be needed for extraction. He said the chemical used in the fracking solution was not carcinogenic.Just one resident, retired Rod Jago, spoke up in Miller's defence. "Surely we should welcome any contribution to self-sufficiency provided it is safe," he said to gasps of disbelief from some of his neighbours. "All new technologies have teething problems. We wouldn't have trains or aeroplanes if we had meetings like this when they started."A spokesman for Cuadrilla, whose backers include former BP chief executive Lord Browne, said said it was pleased to have been allowed the platform. "We couldn't answer all the questions and there was a great deal of confusion about some of the claims that were being made about America," he said. "In the European Union there are some very rigorous controls on groundwater pollution."Shale gas and frackingOilOilOil and gas companiesEnergy industryEnergyFossil fuelsPollutionGasRobert Boothguardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
Greece races to tie up writedown deal before debt repayments fall due
Greece could default on debts if talks with investors break down and it fails to secure the next tranche of bailout cashGreece and its private-sector creditors are involved in a race against time to finalise a debt writedown deal over the next 48 hours that will prevent the troubled country from defaulting on its massive debts.The body negotiating on behalf of investors is adopting a tough stance amid concerns that a breakdown in the talks would result in Greece failing to secure the next tranche of its bailout cash from the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.Charles Dallara, who heads the Washington-based International Institute of Finance, which is acting on behalf of private investors, said "some key areas remained unresolved" after a two-hour meeting with Greece's finance minister Evangelos Venizelos."Discussion will continue in Athens [on Friday] but time for reaching an agreement is running short," Dallara said in a statement."It is essential in order to finalise the voluntary agreement that support be given by all official parties in the days ahead."Venizelos expressed confidence that the talks would be successful, with European leaders hopeful that a resolution of the Greek crisis will take pressure off other vulnerable eurozone countries.The euro rose on exchanges after a successful bond auction in Spain and upbeat comments from the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi. Interest rates on 10-year Spanish and Italian bonds fell sharply, although analysts warned that it was far too early to say the eurozone was out of danger.Banks, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds holding Greek debt are under pressure to accept a 50% writedown – or "haircut" – on their investments in a bond-swap scheme. This crucial reduction would slice around €100bn (£82.6bn) from its €205bn government debt, which would save Athens around €5bn in debt servicing costs and cut its debt pile from 160% of GDP to 120% by 2020 – a ratio that officials – not least in Germany, the main provider of EU rescue funds – see as much more sustainable.Piling on the pressure, the Greek government warned that without the second financial aid package – announced by EU leaders in October but delayed by wrangling over the bond swap – the nation would inevitably default on the €14.5bn of maturing debt it will have to repay on 20 March, a nightmare scenario for the rest of the eurozone."Once the details of the deal are agreed there are several more weeks of paperwork and actually getting the private sector to implement it," said a senior Greek government official. "The intention is to have the basic agreement, at least, wrapped up by the time the troika [inspectors from the EU, ECB and IMF] arrive next week."In recent weeks, however, speculation that private investors would be forced to make further concessions and accept an even bigger writedown in the value of bonds has fuelled uncertainty over the scheme.Acknowledging the difficulty officials were having in attracting the private sector's approval, Greece's deputy finance minister, Filippos Sachinidis, hinted on Thursday that the EU may have to increase rescue funds for Athens if creditors refused to sign up to the deal. That development would inevitably incur the wrath of taxpayers in other eurozone countries. So far the ECB – the biggest holder of Greek bonds – has remained steadfast in its refusal to participate in the deal."If the percentage of participation is not, for instance, 100%, then Greece may need further support from the side of our partners to cover the financial gap," Sachinidis told a local radio station.His comments chimed with those of Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, who this week warned that, after months of missing fiscal targets, Greece's economic outlook looked little better than when the crisis erupted two years ago in the wake of revelations that the country's deficit was three times bigger than originally thought. The IMF chief also raised the prospect of the EU adding yet more money to the €130bn bailout it agreed in October, saying that if such a deal proved impossible, holders of private debt would have to accept even bigger losses.The seeming inability of Greece to improve its economic indicators despite an unprecedented austerity programme fuels persistent speculation over whether it will remain in the single currency.But polls have shown that despite unemployment hitting a record 18.5% and a barrage of wage cuts and tax increases demanded by international creditors in return for aid, the vast majority of Greeks are against reverting to their old currency, the drachma.Eurozone crisisEuropean Central BankIMFEconomicsFinancial crisisFinancial sectorEuroGreeceEuropean UnionEuropeHelena SmithLarry Elliottguardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
Who Goes To CES?
itwbennett writes "The Consumer Electronics Association stopped letting actual consumers attend the gadget extravaganza years ago, but even so, plenty of attendees can't exactly be described 'industry affiliates'. IDG News Service turned up a motorcycle stuntman, a restorer of 8-track tapes, and a lot of folks who were there just for fun."
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Man arrested on suspicion of murdering Oxford University professor
Police detain 49-year-old man following discovery of Steven Rawlings's body at house in OxfordshireA man has been arrested on suspicion of murder following the discovery of an Oxford University professor's body.Steven Rawlings, 50, a tutorial fellow in physics at St Peter's College, was found dead at a bungalow in Laurel Drive in the village of Southmoor, Oxfordshire, on Wednesday night.Thames Valley police said a 49-year-old man was arrested at the scene on suspicion of murder and remains in custody.Police were called to the property at 11.22pm on Wednesday following a report of a man being injured in an incident. Officers and paramedics attended but Rawlings was pronounced dead at the scene.Detective Superintendent Rob Mason, from the major crime unit, said the investigation was still in its early stages, with a postmortem due to take place on Thursday night.He added that officers were not looking for anyone else in connection with the incident. "It does appear that no one else was present at the address."Mason said: "I would like to extend our condolences to the man's family and friends at this very difficult time."The formal identification has taken place, we can confirm the identity of the man as Professor Steven Rawlings, aged 50, of St Peter's College, Oxford."The family has requested that the media please respect their privacy at this very difficult time."We are liaising closely with Oxford University and it is apparent that he was well respected and liked within the college and colleagues and students have been devastated by the news."Mark Damazer, master of St Peter's College, said in a statement: "We regret to report the death in Oxford on 11 January 2012 of Professor Steve Rawlings, official fellow and tutor in physics."He was a much liked and admired tutor and colleague within the college and will be greatly missed. We extend our deepest sympathy to his wife, Linda."The vice-chancellor of Oxford University, Professor Andrew Hamilton, said in a statement: "The entire university community has been profoundly saddened and shocked by the tragic and untimely death of Professor Steve Rawlings."Our thoughts are with his family and friends."Rawlings was one of the lead scientists in the international Square Kilometre Array (SKA) project – the largest radio telescope system in the world.He did his undergraduate and doctoral studies at Cambridge University, where he also undertook post-doctoral research before moving to Oxford University. He was head of the sub-department of astrophysics between 2006 and 2010.CrimeUniversity of OxfordDavid Battyguardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
Preparation ‘haytch’: Justine Greening gives high-speed train a Dickensian feel
The transport secretary's pronunciation of HS2 follows a political tradition of not listening to what you are saying or how you soundCharles Dickens's birthday is next month, and let's hope the Commons remembers him properly. He worked for Hansard, and was the greatest of all parliamentary sketchwriters. For me to say I am following in his footsteps would be like Ernie Wise claiming to be in the playwriting tradition of Shakespeare.I noticed on Tuesday that Justine Greening, the new transport secretary, always referred to the high-speed train, HS2, as "haytch" instead of "aitch" S2. At transport questions, she called it "high speed two" throughout – the result, I suspect, of a word from an embarrassed civil servant. But "haytch" has a good Dickensian feel to it. My mind drifted to the riverside at Putney, Ms Greening's seat, where, clothed in rags and covered in tar and sand, she is mending fishermen's nets. The young hero, Arthur Atkins, has asked her how he might get to Birmingham."Haar, tis passage to Brumminum you want, young Harthur Hatkins!" she cackles. "Ye'll need to catch that ketch a-bound for Waterloo! Then tekk the 'orse-drawn Northern line as far as Heuston station, harr, and ye'll be thar in 10 minutes, quick as a knife through dripping, my lovely ..."I snapped out of the reverie and reflected that most politicians do not actually listen to what they are saying. Well, they do: they have the equivalent of the "seven-second loop" used in radio phone-ins to give the host time to cut out the obscene or libellous. In the same way they can filter out anything that might offend the party whips or their own constituents. But they're not listening to what's left. Take Labour's Barry Sheerman, who wanted more low-cost road engineering schemes which, he said, reduce accidents and so save lives: "They are the best investment and offer the best bang for the buck."Hmmm. Shortly afterwards we had the Tories' James Grey, who was complaining about the closure of railway booking offices "right across the piste". We are in the Austrian Alps, and a skier is charging down a black run. Suddenly, there in his way is a little hut in which a man in a peaked cap is muttering about a return ticket to Kyle of Lochalsh while a dozen frustrated commuters queue, fuming, right across the piste.Best of all is when they are so desperate to get it right that they get it wrong. For example, Lynne Featherstone, the Lib Dem junior minister for women, announced that "a diet is for life, not just for Christmas", which, since Christmas is the time we all stop dieting, is the opposite of the truth. Moments later she was asked about breastfeeding, and the fact that British mothers do less than other Europeans. "I don't want people who can't breastfeed to feel badly about not being able to breastfeed," she said.I wanted to lean over and yell: "I can't breastfeed, and I don't feel badly at all! I was delighted I didn't have to get up at 3am to feed our children!" It would have done no good. Ms Featherstone was determined not to be gender-specific in anything she said, and risk being a female chauvinist pig. So the remark sailed right through her seven-second loop.Justine GreeningHS2Rail transportHouse of CommonsSimon Hoggartguardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
Two Newts emerge in South Carolina to take down Mitt Romney
Both the nasty and nice sides of Newt Gingrich are facing a tough battle in trying to derail Romney's momentum, but neither side may be able to succeedThere is nice Newt and there is nasty Newt and, in a frantic effort to stop Mitt Romney from clinching the Republican nomination, both versions are showing up in force in South Carolina.The convivial version of former House speaker Newt Gingrich is the candidate who shows up in person on the campaign trail. He is the congenial, smiling figure, with his shock of grey hair, who pitched up yesterday in Rock Hill in the state's north-west to meet and greet voters.This is the Gingrich who flaunts his learning by calling President Barack Obama a "Saul Alinsky radical", namedropping an obscure left-wing activist who died in 1972. This is the Gingrich who references his Catholic faith at any opportunity and who challenges Barack Obama to a debating contest with no moderator. "We have to have a leader who is prepared to go nose to tail and tell truth about the president," Gingrich told the 400-strong crowd in Rock Hill who hung on his every word. "(Obama) has done just about as much to wreck this country as any other president," he added.This Gingrich – the muscularly aggressive conservative intellectual who is hyper confident of his mastery of oratory – barely ever mentions Romney by name. Instead he cautions, very gently, about the dangers of the Republican party picking a "moderate" rather than a died-in-the-wool conservative like him. "I don't believe any moderate can debate Barack Obama successfully. There is not a big enough gap between them," Gingrich chided his Rock Hill fans.But nice Newt is just half of the story unfolding in South Carolina. At the same time as Gingrich was speaking in Rock Hill, a group of pro-Gingrich supporters were unleashing a long-awaited film on Romney that delves deeply into his controversial years at head of Bain Capital. Bain under Romney bought and restructured firms, often leading to major job losses. The 28-minute film, called "When Mitt Romney Came To Town", was put online by Winning Our Future, a so-called Super Pac which can spend millions of dollars in support of a candidate but is legally barred from official co-ordination with a campaign. The movie features a long roll call of ordinary working people laid off by Bain who are not shy of blaming Romney for their woes. It portrays Romney as a ruthless capitalist exploiter, killing jobs for greed and profit and making millions out of others' misery. It is essentially a vitriolic half-hour long anti-Romney attack advert.But the official Gingrich campaign is not afraid of getting down and dirty with brutal mud-slinging either. In one of the most negative adverts in recent years in national US politics, Gingrich's team is airing a 30-second TV spot in South Carolina slamming Romney on abortion. "What happened after Massachusetts moderate Mitt Romney changed his position from pro-abortion to pro-life? He governed pro-abortion," the ad states before accusing Romney of funding abortions with tax-payer cash. It concludes: "Massachusetts moderate Mitt Romney: He can't be trusted."Experts say the extreme tactics deployed by Gingrich and his allies has a simple motivation: stop Romney. After watching Romney's own Super Pac cripple Gingrich's own chances of winning with a flood of negative ads in Iowa, Gingrich is out for revenge. He is remaining in the race to become a "Romney killer": out to tear a ragged hole in Romney's highly-organised, lavishly funded campaign. "All the air went out of Gingrich's balloon in Iowa," said Professor Jeri Cabot, a political scientist at the College of Charleston. "Now he does not seem to have much left but try and stop Romney."But there are some signs that both Newts still have appeal in South Carolina even as Gingrich has admitted that if Romney wins the state then he will be the nominee. Nice Newt still taps into a well-spring of enthusiastic support in a deeply conservative state. At a campaign stop at the Beacon restaurant in Spartanburg, in the heart of the state's religious upstate region, Mervin Fuller liked what he heard. "I just like his bold talking. He is a straight thrower. He tells it like it is," said the veteran and retired cop. Fuller had no time at all for Romney. "He's too wishy-washy. He's too fake for me," he said. Which is where nasty Newt comes in and can be effective. South Carolina is famed for dirty politics and has a powerful voting bloc of evangelicals who care deeply about issues like abortion. It is not natural Romney territory at all. It is also struggling economically and Gingrich's recent conversion to bashing Wall Street and "crony capitalism" might also strike a chord. Fuller still had hopes Gingrich could pull something off. "Upstate here in Spartanburg he'll make a good showing," he said. Graphic designer Mack Swaringen, 35, was also open to Gingrich's message. "I am conservative fiscally and socially. I like him. I think he can do well," he said. But there are many bad signs for Gingrich too. In Rock Hill one senior South Carolina conservative leader, highly active in local politics, confessed to The Guardian that he thought Gingrich would lose despite being an official backer of the campaign and even standing behind the former speaker on stage. "I am a Romney fan. I think Romney can do it," the figure admitted before slamming Gingrich for his anti-Wall Street statements. "It is a mistake to do that," the figure added. In the Beacon diner it briefly seemed Gingrich's staff might have faced an embarrassingly empty room as the venue failed to fill quickly. Some aides cleared away empty chairs to make the room look more full, though, as crowds did later arrive, they then hastily put them out again. Sceptics too are easy to find at Gingrich events. Ron Feuder, a retired optician at the Rock Hill event, was tired of the negativity pouring into the race. "It is depressing in a way. I know they are going to do it, but it gets a little old," he said. He thought Romney would be fine in South Carolina. "I think he'll get the state. He's got the presidential look, so to speak," Feuder said.Experts agree that both the nasty and nice Newts are facing a tough battle and neither may succeed in derailing the former Massachusetts governor's romp to victory. Romney may have won Iowa by just eight votes, but he cruised home in New Hampshire. He now heads all the South Carolina polls, enjoying a lead as his conservative enemies in the shape of Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Rick Perry divide the opposition. "I don't think Gingrich will win anything here," said Professor Cabot, adding that Gingrich's attacks only seemed to have proved a vital test of Romney's ability to withstand assault. "I am surprised I am saying this but Romney looks like a winner and people like that. He's demonstrated that he can take the slings and arrows," she said. If that remains the case then both Newts will soon be packing their bags. The odd double act will have come to an end.Republican presidential nomination 2012US elections 2012South CarolinaNewt GingrichUS politicsMitt RomneyPaul Harrisguardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
A high water mark: artists moor holiday houseboat on London roof
Vessel installed on top of Queen Elizabeth Hall on South Bank is open to the public for overnight staysThere are just a few things missing to complete the scene. Savage dogs, rusting engines from white vans plundered for parts, seagulls squabbling over landfill, scuffed barges laden with gravel and a backdrop peppered with indifferent high-rise housing. Add a slight scent of sewage and the 27-tonne Le Roi des Belges (King of the Belgians) might be berthed on some wind scythed stretch of the Thames Estuary far east of Tower Bridge.The illusion, conjured on a grey and blustery January morning is not so very whimsical. Le Roi des Belges just happens to be moored on top of the brutalist Queen Elizabeth Hall between the Royal Festival Hall and the National Theatre. This, though, is no weather beaten Thames trader; it is, rather, an artwork – houseboat, too, which the public can stay in. It was designed by architect David Kohn and artist Fiona Banner, with Artangel for Living Architecture, an organisation set up by the philosopher Alain de Botton to build innovative holiday homes around the shores of Britain.The shock, having ridden a slow and brutally utilitarian lift up through a jagged concrete interstice between the Queen Elizabeth Hall and the Hayward Gallery, is to find the houseboat anchored to the vast concrete roof of the 1960s concert hall, a terrain as bleak, and as compelling, as any found downriver from Tower Bridge.Artist and architect say they were inspired by Joseph Conrad's novel, Heart of Darkness, set on the Thames and the River Congo, and by Conrad's tales of how he steamed up the Congo in a boat of the same name in 1889. But, where Conrad experienced the all but unspeakable horror of the atrocities committed in the Congo Free State by King Alphonso II, what you see spread out before you as you board the artworld Roi des Belges, also known as A Room for London, is the most compelling, and gloriously wide-angled, panorama of central London, framed by the Palace of Westminster on the port side and St Paul's to starboard."The idea is that where once ships sailed out from imperial London to the rest of the world, today the world has come willingly to London," explained de Botton. "The boat is here to provoke, stimulate and adjust how people feel about London."Two people can stay here for a single night during the course of this year. Snuggled into their cabin – complete with neat galley, dining a pair of room, bunks that can be slid together, a shower with a view of the dome of St Paul's and a library. Those stowing their jib aboard this happily unexpected houseboat, are offered shelves stacked with books on London, peerless views and the strangest sense of being marooned alone in the heart, not of darkness, but of a neon, fluorescent and sodium-lit city and with the sound of Thames water lapping the South Bank shore overlain with the noise of night buses and emergency service sirens.A Room for London is a year-long arts venue. A programme of visiting writers includes Swedish author and cultural historian Sven Lindqvist and novelist Jeanette Winterson. Among the musicians staying on board will be Andrew Bird, the Chicago multi-instrumentalist, German composer Heiner Goebbels and Laurie Anderson. Video and installation artist, Jeremy Deller, and Talking Heads' David Byrne will also be part of the crew. Somewhere between July and December you might want to book yourself on board, too, before, Le Roi des Belges is lifted off the roof of the Queen Elizabeth Hall and packed off to her next port of cultural call.Le Roi des Belges is the sixth of the adventurous new rental houses commissioned by Living Architecture. These include the Balancing Barn on the Suffolk coast between Aldeburgh and Walberswick by Dutch architects, MVRDV, the Shingle House on the extreme south-easterly point of England at Dungeness, by the Glaswegian team NORD Architecture, and the Dune House on the fringe of Thorpeness,Suffolk, by Norway's Jarmund/Vigsnaes architects. All are moored by the sea, yet none is as literal in form as the shipshape Roi des Belges.ArtArchitectureFiona BannerLondonJonathan Glanceyguardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
UK recession warning boosts hopes that Bank will pump cash into economy
More quantitative easing by the Bank of England is expected soon, as industrial production declines for two months runningFresh warnings that the UK started going into recession in the final quarter of last year have increased expectation that the Bank of England is poised to pump more electronic cash into the economy as soon as next month.A leading thinktank, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), estimated that UK economic growth halved last year and ground to a virtual halt in the final quarter of 2011. Its estimate for growth of just 0.1% over October to December followed news that industrial production declined for a second successive month and by more than expected in November.Output from industry – which includes energy and mining, as well as manufacturing – fell 0.6% in November, to a level 3% lower than a year earlier.The drop deals another blow to the government's hope that the industrial sector can pick up the slack from a shrinking public sector and faltering consumer spending. Economists said the numbers reinforced expectations that Britain's economy would have stalled or even shrunk in the fourth quarter.Against that backdrop, the Bank of England is widely expected to step in soon, with billions more in electronic cash under its quantitative easing (QE) programme, although it chose to stay its hand at the end of its latest meeting on Thursday. Interest rates were also kept on hold at 0.5%."There is a growing risk that the recession started in the fourth quarter of last year rather than in the first quarter of this year," said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec. "Overall, £50bn more QE next month seems to us to be virtually 'baked in the cake'."The Office for National Statistics also revised down its estimate for industrial output in October to show a 1% decline compared with a 0.7% fall previously. Within the sector, manufacturers trimmed output by 0.2% in November but the continued decline, after a 0.9% fall in October, underlined the fragility of the sector that the government hoped would lead Britain's recovery. It releases its first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on 25 January.Samuel Tombs, at Capital Economics, said the latest data suggested the industrial sector was heading straight back into recession."These falls mean that overall production is now 3.5% below its recent peak set at the start of 2011 and some 12.5% below its pre-recession level," he said."What's more, even if we generously assume production holds steady in December, the industrial sector will still knock 0.2% or so off overall GDP growth in the fourth quarter, despite its small size,."NIESR said its estimate for virtually no expansion at the end of 2011 meant growth for the year as a whole was just 1%, down from 2.1% in 2010.Labour's shadow Treasury minister, Chris Leslie, seized on NIESR's estimates as a warning shot to the government."Our recovery was choked off well before the recent eurozone crisis, but if the government refuses to take urgent action to get our economy moving again, then I fear this stagnant growth is set to continue into 2012," he said."This is bad news for families, businesses and for the deficit too," he added, referring to how much more the government will have to borrow with high unemployment and sluggish growth.Economic growth (GDP)Bank of EnglandQuantitative easingManufacturing sectorManufacturing dataEconomicsKatie AllenHeather Stewartguardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds
Burma agrees to prisoner amnesty
Political prisoners may among those released as government signs ceasefire with Karen rebels in east of the countryAuthorities in Burma are set to release hundreds of prisoners in a new amnesty, in the latest step towards wholesale reform in the secretive south-east Asian state.An announcement on Thursday has raised hopes that many of the political prisoners currently held in Burmese jails will be among the 600-odd detainees set to be freed.William Hague, the British foreign secretary, repeatedly raised the issue of the political prisoners, who could number as many as 1,700, during a visit to Burma last week, as did Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, during her visit in December.Burmese state radio and television said the prisoners would be released so they can "participate in the task of nation-building".The words used appeared to indicate that many would be political prisoners, observers said. A recent clemency order was widely criticised internationally for releasing only 13 minor political activists.On Thursday, Burmese authorities also signed a ceasefire agreement with ethnic rebels in the east of the country, taking a major step toward ending one of the world's longest-running insurgencies.Burma has been ruled directly or indirectly by the military since 1962,but a nominally civilian government was appointed last year, pro-democracy campaigner Aung San Suu Kyi was freed from house arrest and censorship eased.The three conditions laid out by western governments for sanctions imposed by the European Union and the US on Burma to be lifted are free elections, the release of political prisoners and peace with the dozens of ethnic groups which have been fighting authorities intermittently for decades.A spokesman for the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) said "the government is releasing the prisoners apparently because the recent clemency order was strongly criticised by us and the international community.""We have to wait and see how many political prisoners will be released tomorrow," Ohn Kyaing, the spokesman, said. Many of those being held are members of the NLD. However, the peace agreement with the rebels is also seen as crucial.Aung San Suu Kyi, general secretary of the NLD, said last week that "unless there is ethnic harmony, it will be very difficult ... to build up a strong democracy." Agencies in Rangoon have reported that the government's peace committee met on Thursday with leaders of the Karen ethnic group in the Karen state capital, Pa-an.A government official at the talks told reporters "a ceasefire agreement has been signed" between the authorities and the Karen National Union, a rebel group.Karen rebels have been fighting for autonomy for 63 years and were the only major ethnic community in Burma that had not concluded any kind of peace agreement with the government.Violence between ethnic groups living along the borders and Burmese central government forces has displaced millions of people and caused huge suffering.Military offensives have been accompanied by systematic rape, torture and the use of forced labour, human rights groups say. Millions have been forced into exile, many fleeing to neighbouring Thailand.An agreement with groups representing the Kachin ethnic minority in the north-east broke down last summer.Military operations – in contradiction of an order given by President Thein Sein last month – appear to be continuing. Aid workers in Burma said on Thursday the situation was deteriorating, with more than 50,000 Kachin people forced from their homes over the past six months.The Karen long fought successfully against Burmese authorities from the jungle-covered hills near the border with Thailand before a lack of unity weakened the movement.Karen diaspora groups cautiously welcomed Thursday's agreement but warned that it remained unsafe for Karen exiles to return to Burma."We have seen how human rights abuses have continued in other areas of Burma where there are ceasefires, and how the dictatorship used the ceasefires to extend its control … A ceasefire alone tackles the symptoms, not the causes. There must also be political dialogue for a permanent political solution," a statement from Karen Communities Worldwide said.There have been several rounds of ceasefire discussions between the Karen and the government, most recently around 2005, but none resulted in an agreement.One Burma-based analyst described the agreement as "ground-breaking", but warned that genuine economic development was now important to make sure any peace was durable."The previous ceasefires in 1990s become an opportunity for [some leaders] to enrich themselves and intensified the extraction of natural resources," the analyst said. One example was extensive logging by Chinese companies in Kachin areas. Opium poppy cultivation and drug manufacture also boomed.BurmaAung San Suu KyiThailandAsia PacificWilliam HagueHillary ClintonJason Burkeguardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. 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